Economists: Trump Set for a 2020 Electoral College Landslide
With nearly a year still to go before the 2020 presidential election, we’re definitely not yet in “get cocky” territory. Anything could happen in the next eleven months, the cards could break against us. Democrats could get that lucky one-outer on the river and put Joe Biden (or whoever) in the White House. But sitting where we are in December 2019, things are looking pretty good. The economy is soaring to new heights, we’re coming off one of the (if not THE) biggest holiday shopping seasons of all time, and the Democrats are sinking in the public opinion polls.
Analysts on Wall Street are paying attention.
President Donald Trump will skate to a 2020 landslide if the booming economy remains on fire next year. That’s the consensus on Wall Street and according to several different election-prediction models.
Despite the impeachment and the nonstop negative media coverage of his presidency, Trump is galvanizing support in his base and is winning over independent voters on the strength of his sizzling economy.
Mark Zandi is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a global financial-research group. He says President Trump will easily win reelection, according to three different economic models that Moody’s used to gauge the 2020 race.
The Moody’s prediction model has been accurate since 1980 — missing only once in its four-decade history. That was in 2016, when it wrongly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Electoral College.
“The election is Trump’s to lose,” Zandi told Bloomberg. “Trump wins if the economy and his approval rating are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical.”
To double back to our “don’t get cocky” warning, there are two pretty big “ifs” in Zandi’s statement. The economy is a fickle beast, and while few economists are still parroting that “omg the recession is coming” nonsense that they were trying to push a few months ago, you never know. The bottom could fall out. Even if it doesn’t, we could easily hit a rough patch. So that’s one thing that could happen. The other would be a huge surge of Democratic voter turnout. We don’t see either of those possibilities as being particularly likely, but it’s worth keeping some “cautiously” to our “optimistic.”
Working in our favor: Even if the economy does experience a slowdown, we’ll still be ahead of where we were when Obama was reelected. Second, the Democrats are absolutely playing themselves with this idiotic impeachment push, which has been a bust from the first day. Third, the Democratic candidates are some of the sorriest in party history.
Things are looking undeniably good.