New Zogby Poll Has Trump and Biden in a Dead Heat Nationally

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In a new poll taken the day after the news broke that President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, Zogby Strategies finds that the presidential race – as measured by a national survey – has drawn closer than ever. Former Vice President Joe Biden now only leads Trump by a meager two points, holding a 48-47 percent lead over Trump, a lead among likely voters that is within the margin of error. This is a dramatic swing from Zogby’s own polling, which had Biden leading by seven points in July and six points in August.

Biden, Zogby reports, “is leading among Democrats 91%-8%, voters 18-29 years of age (60%-35%) and those 30-49 (50%-45%), as well as among women (56%-41%), Progressives (85%-15%), Liberals (85%-14%) and Moderates (58%-36%). He also leads among Hispanics 61%-34% and Blacks (87%-11%).”

The polling firm went on to note that Trump as the advantage “among fellow Republicans (94%-6%), voters 50-64 (53%-45%) and those over 65 (50%-47%). As of now, Mr. Trump is capturing a slight majority of Catholic voters (51%-46%), Evangelicals (68%-32%), Conservatives (78%-18%), and Very Conservative voters (92%-8%). He also is ahead among Whites (56%-40%) and parents of children under 17 living at home (54%-40%).”

In a bit of personal analysis, John Zogby said that he was a bit surprised by the new poll’s results.

“Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization,” he wrote. “His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016. For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters. Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia.”

It’s too early to say whether or not Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis and (hopefully) full recovery will redound in his favor, and it almost feels…unseemly…to wonder about its political effect. What we’re more concerned about is getting the president healthy enough to get back out there on the campaign trail and let the American people know exactly why he deserves another four years in office. This election is already surrounded by enough chaos and weirdness as it is.

Having said that, this poll clearly shows that Biden is not performing as well as he would like – or as well as certain other polls seem to suggest. Could that be because those other polls are still oversampling Dems and trying to give their network/newspaper affiliates the news they want to hear? Could it be because they’re trying to influence the election as much as they are trying to gauge it?

Well, c’mon. We all lived through 2016. Of course that’s the case.