The Economist and YouGov just released a new poll on shutdown politics, and it provides an interesting window on what the fallout might be if this shutdown lasts well into 2019. If the Democrats believe they have President Trump on the ropes and ready to cry mercy, they may want to take a close look at these results and re-calibrate. It is clear that while the country is badly divided when it comes to the construction of a wall across the southern border, Americans take illegal immigration far more seriously than the Democrats would like to believe.
One interesting point on the poll: It shows that Americans hold two entities primarily responsible for the impasse. President Trump takes the majority of the blame with congressional Democrats in second place. Most Americans see congressional Republicans as bystanders in this showdown, which is more or less accurate, as far as we can tell. This is a battle between Trump and the Democrats on Capitol Hill; we get the feeling that Mitch McConnell and friends will go along with whatever settlement these two sides can hammer out in the coming weeks. We’re pretty sure that McConnell would like to just get all of this over with as soon as possible, quite frankly.
But Republicans on the Hill should be careful about underestimating the public’s appetite for strong border security, particularly on their side of the voting divide. 43% of Americans want to see construction begin on the wall, and 43% say the wall is not necessary. That’s a much healthier divide than you would gather from the mainstream media. 71% of Republicans see illegal immigration as a “very serious” problem in the United States. Furthermore, nearly half of Republican voters would like to see measures that decrease even legal immigration.
As for which party is most trusted with border security, Republicans narrowly win the nod with 31% of voters saying they are better left in charge. The most hilarious part of this section of the poll: 64% of Democrat voters say that Democrats are to be better trusted with border security. Like, how partisan can you be to actually answer that way? The only thing we can guess is that 64% of Democrat voters are either that clueless about political realities or they would simply rather have an open border that permits illegal entry on a regular basis.
The tide is with the president on this issue, and that’s pretty damned remarkable considering the way the media is portraying this shutdown. Will it cause Democrats to rethink their opposition to the wall? Probably not, but if we were a potential 2020 contender looking to unseat Trump, we would be paying close attention to these polls and others. The appetite for strong border security in this country is a lot stronger than Trump’s critics want to believe.
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