If you take it from the Beltway’s conventional wisdom, President Donald Trump is a historically unpopular president who is leading the Republican Party to a generation’s worth of doom. But when you go beyond the hype and down to the numbers, like Gallup did in their most recent poll, the picture tells a much different story. Indeed, the poll shows that Americans have a more favorable view of the GOP than they have since 2011 – and more importantly, more voters view the Republican Party in a favorable light than they do the Democratic Party. Which, despite all the predictions you’ve seen in the mainstream media, could signal a surprise coming for Schumer and Pelosi in November.
“Republican Party Favorability is the highest it has been in 7 years – 3 points higher than Democrats!” tweeted the president on Tuesday.
Leave it to Donald Trump to take a piece of good news and tweak it to make it that much better – if we did nothing else in 2016, we elected someone who understands the business of excitement. In truth, Republican Party favorability is only one percentage point higher than the Democrats according to Gallup’s findings. Still, a little bit of positive exaggeration never hurt anyone.
The poll also found that the gender gap is closing. While the media insists that Republicans are inviting political tragedy upon their house for sticking beside Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, Gallup found that the GOP’s numbers are actually improving with women. Last year at this time, only 35% of women viewed the party favorably; in the latest edition of the poll, 40% gave the GOP a thumbs up. Meanwhile, female approval of the Democratic Party dropped by one point, closing the gap between the two parties by nearly half. That, perhaps more than anything, is a statistic that bodes ominously for the Democrats’ hope for a blue wave.
Meanwhile, Republicans enjoyed a thirteen-point increase with men; they now lead the Democrats 50% to 41% among that important demographic.
“No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout,” Gallup reported.
Overall, the Republican Party now stands at 45% favorability with the American public, which is the highest rating for the GOP since January 2011. As Gallup notes, that number came in shortly before a midterm election that saw Republicans retake the House from Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.
For Democrats already planning InvestigationMania 2019 (likely followed by an Impeachment Bash in the summer), the results of the midterm elections could come as a nasty shock.
But then, they have some practice with elections that didn’t turn out quite the way they thought they would.
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