After weeks of looking like she might take the title of presumptive frontrunner away from Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren has apparently self-destructed with her inability to sell Medicare-for-All to Democratic primary voters.
According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Warren has lost her first place status nationally to Biden, who leads the field with 24% of national support. Warren isn’t even in second; she’s given that position to Pete Buttigieg, who is bringing in 16% of the vote. Finally, we find Warren in a virtual tie for third place, amassing only 14% of the vote along with Bernie Sanders, who has 13%.
More troubling than the raw numbers of the placement of the candidates is Warren’s showing this time as compared with the last Quinnipiac national poll. On October 24, she was leading the field with 28% of primary voter support. She’s lost HALF of her support in just a month’s time, and that has many political pundits scratching their heads and wondering just what in the world happened.
“Biden is back on top of the pack but now there is a three-way race for second,” Quinnipiac University analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. “Buttigieg has broken into the top tier, apparently at the expense of Warren, who has taken a dive after being hammered for being too far left on health care and other issues.”
Is that it? Well, there are signs that indicate it could be. Buttigieg’s simultaneous rise shows that, despite occupying a different lane in the left-wing race, he’s poaching Warren’s voters. And with Sanders in a dead heat with Warren, one can assume that the avowed leftists in the poll are splitting their support between the two senators. One may have to drop out if the other is to have any meaningful success.
Warren’s poll numbers are also sagging in first-in-the-nation Iowa, where Democrats are concerned that her Medicare-for-All message simply isn’t resonating.
“The only conversation happening among undecided caucus-goers is about health care,” Polk County chairman Sean Bagniewski told Politico. “The thing about Iowa, we’re known for being an agricultural state, but we’re one of the insurance capitals of the world. I think people are more detail oriented and policy oriented in Iowa, because a significant amount of our workforce is in the insurance industry.”
There’s some evidence to support the idea that anyone who backs Medicare-for-All will have a tough time winning the general election against Trump. In 2018, Democrats running for Congress fared considerably worse in close races when they supported Medicare-for-All. If the 2020 nominee is such a person, it could not only cost Democrats the presidency but also wreak havoc down the ballot.
For Democrats, it may be Joe Biden or bust. And boy, that’s not an enviable position to be in.
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